Thin Melanoma Recurrence Risk Calculator

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Thin Melanoma Recurrence Risk Calculator

Thin Melanoma Recurrence Risk Calculator

Age >65, ulceration, and mitotic rate ≥1/mm² independently predict T1 melanoma recurrence within 2 years in the largest multi-site study of its kind — three factors any dermatologist already has at diagnosis.

Build a simple, open-access clinical decision support calculator for thin (T1) melanoma recurrence risk. A clinician inputs three values available from the pathology report — patient age, ulceration status (yes/no), and mitotic rate — and the tool outputs a risk category (low/elevated/high) with the evidence base, suggested surveillance schedule, and a link to the underlying study.

The calculator would be built as a lightweight, mobile-friendly web app requiring no login and no data storage — designed to be used chairside during a post-op consultation or tumor board. The output would be a printable one-page patient summary explaining their risk category in plain language, what it means for follow-up, and questions to ask their oncologist.

A secondary feature could show the clinician which risk factors are present in their patient and what the data says about each — turning the calculator into a brief educational tool for trainees. This kind of point-of-care tool has high real-world impact: thin melanoma management is inconsistent across institutions precisely because there's no standardized risk stratification framework yet.

Who Is This For?

Dermatologists, surgical oncologists, melanoma nurse specialists, and patients newly diagnosed with T1 melanoma.

Skills & Tools Needed

  • Basic web development (HTML/CSS/JavaScript or React — no backend required)
  • Clinical risk score implementation (logistic regression from published ORs)
  • Medical writing for patient-facing risk communication
  • Mobile-responsive design
  • Optional: PDF report generation for printable patient summaries

Feasibility

high — Three binary/categorical inputs, a published odds ratio model, and a static output — this could be a fully functional tool in a single day of development.

Inspired by: Clinical and pathological characteristics of thin cutaneous melanomas with rapid recurrence.

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